Explore the evolving US India relation: amid trade disputes and shifting alliances, see how China and Russia shape this key partnership
Table of Contents
The US India relation has become a hot topic as of 2025. Once hailed as a “defining partnership of the 21st century,” tensions have recently arisen. Sudden 50% tariffs on Indian goods, mixed signals on security, and America’s changing focus have tested decades of trust In this article we explore the history of US-India ties, recent strains under the Trump administration, and why India still maintains strong ties with Russia. We’ll look at trade figures, defense ties, and political dynamics. Readers will learn why relations have turned turbulent, how India balances great-power ties, and what experts say about the road ahead for this important partnership.
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Historical Evolution of US India Relations
Historically, the US-India relation was cold and cautious during the Cold War. India pursued non-alignment and leaned toward the Soviet Union, while the US allied with Pakistan and China. Only in the 1990s and 2000s did relations warm significantly. Following India’s economic liberalization and shared democratic values, bilateral ties improved. By 2015, Brookings analysts noted that high-level visits and dialogues had become “more frequent … and the relationship [had become] broader and deeper than ever before”. For example, in 2005 the landmark Indo-US civil nuclear deal lifted decades of distrust, and successive US presidents (George W. Bush, Barack Obama) worked closely with Indian leaders. Prime Minister Modi said “India and the U.S. have a fundamental stake in each other’s success” and both sides envisioned a long-term partnership.
In recent years, defense and economic ties have expanded. India joined US-led frameworks like the Quad (with Australia and Japan) aimed at containing Chinese influence. Annual military exercises increased, and trade grew: India became one of America’s largest trading partners. In FY2025, bilateral trade hit a record $132.2 billion. The US is among India’s top sources of technology, investment, and education ties. Indian Americans, a skilled diaspora of over 4 million, further link the countries. On paper, the US India relation seemed stronger than ever – until recent policy shocks.
A Strategic Partnership Strained
Despite the deepening partnership, recent U.S. actions under President Trump’s administration have introduced volatility and mistrust. In mid-2025, President Trump announced that the US would impose an extra 50% tariff on a wide range of Indian imports. This sudden move caught New Delhi off-guard. It was largely aimed at pressuring India over its purchases of Russian oil, even though Chinese oil imports weren’t targeted as heavily. Indians saw this as double standards: after all, the U.S. itself had encouraged India to buy Russian crude to keep global prices low. India’s leaders and media openly accused the US of hypocrisy, noting that Washington continues to buy Russian oil while punishing India for the same act.
Experts warn these actions have eroded trust in the partnership. One scholar said Trump’s tariffs “triggered the most serious rupture in the US-India relations in decades”. A think tank analyst summed it up bluntly: this “breach has the potential to threaten the long-term foundation of U.S. strategic engagement with India”. In practical terms, Indian officials and business leaders felt blindsided. There was ongoing dialogue with Washington, yet overnight these talks were overshadowed by high duties and trade threats. Many Indians “felt blindsided” by the tariff announcement and “angered” by being labeled a “dead economy”. As one Carnegie Endowment expert put it: “Trust in the United States has eroded sharply”, casting a long shadow over the relationship.
Beyond trade, other moves stoked friction. The Trump administration’s warm gestures toward Pakistan – such as hosting Pakistan’s army chief in the White House – upset India, which sees Pakistan as a long-time adversary. In 2019, Trump even claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan before it was announced, and he offered to mediate in India’s conflicts with Pakistan and China. This “clash of personalities” between Trump and India’s Modi – praised as close friends in public rallies – turned sour in private negotiations. The unpredictability extended to personal slights: during his first term Trump famously derided India (once calling it “filthy”) and imitated Modi’s accent, fueling a sense of indignation. Meanwhile, the U.S. also criticized India’s own trade policies, creating a back-and-forth blame game.
Key issues straining ties:
- Tariff warfare: Trump’s 50% levy on Indian goods (notably targeting steel, aluminium, and dairy) triggered major blowback.
- Different China approach: India faces low U.S. tariffs while China negotiates a trade deal, raising questions about America’s true priorities.
- Russia sanctions: The U.S. has pressured India to reduce its Russian connections (buying oil, S-400 missiles), creating a wedge between the allies. India fears U.S. punishment for historic ties.
- Pakistan relations: Washington’s reset with Pakistan – including military support – frustrated New Delhi, which sees Pakistan as a security threat.
- Leadership mismatch: India’s tradition of multi-alignment clashes with the Trump administration’s “transactional” diplomacy. Many Indians feel Trump treats alliances like deals to be renegotiated on short notice.
These volatile actions have led commentators to note “the only constant is volatility” in US-India ties right now. While the two democracies still share many common interests (democracy, counterterrorism, balancing China), the recent personal and policy headwinds make cooperation tricky. One Brookings study called this “one of the most challenging moments” in the relationship since the 1998 nuclear tests era. As trade talks continue, both sides publicly claim friendship, but privately they navigate deep disappointments and strategic mistrust.
Comparison: U.S. vs. Russia – India’s Partnerships
India’s foreign policy in recent decades has been characterized by strategic autonomy and diversified partnerships. On one hand, the United States is a major partner; on the other, Russia remains a long-time ally. The table below compares some key aspects of India’s relations with each power:
| Aspect | United States | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| Trade (2024) | $132.2 billion bilateral trade (FY25). Largest trading partner; India even ran a surplus. | $65.7 billion (2024). Important for energy (oil) and some tech, but far smaller than US trade. |
| Defense/Arms | Growing defense partner: new deals for helicopters, jets, electronics. India is diversifying, but share was smaller (U.S. accounts for a rising fraction of Indian arms imports). | Historically dominant: Russia supplied 36% of India’s arms imports in 2020–24 (down from 55% in 2015–19). Major supplier of tanks, missiles, fighter jets, and the S-400 missiles. |
| Diplomatic Support | Mixed record: Supports many of India’s aims but also fosters Pakistan ties. US backed India’s UNSC aspirations at times, but current rhetoric is inconsistent. | Consistently supportive: backed India’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat, avoids criticizing India’s partnerships. Russia sees India as a counterweight to China. No pressure on India for buying Russian weapons or oil. |
| Policy Style | Under Trump: Transactional. Friendships can change overnight based on US domestic needsa. High uncertainty. US encourages India to join Western-led frameworks (Quad, etc.); however, tariffs and sanctions have made India wary. | Steady and predictable: Post-Soviet ties remain strong. Agrees on many security issues with India. Invasion of Ukraine complicated things, but India still buys cheap Russian oil; Russia did not condemn India’s S-400 purchase. India trusts Russia to stick by past commitments. |
This comparison shows why India simultaneously courts Washington but keeps Moscow close. The United States offers technology, investment, and support against China – but recent U.S. moves have been erratic. Russia offers strategic reliability: it continues to supply arms, sell discounted oil, and back India diplomatically even as it grapples with Ukraine sanctions. In sum, India hedges its bets: it engages the US on shared interests, but retains a “hedge” with Russia in case U.S. policy shifts again.
Key Issues and Takeaways
India’s view is that having options is crucial. Indian strategists point out that because U.S. policy under Trump is unpredictable, India cannot afford to rely solely on one partner. This is part of India’s longstanding “multi-alignment” approach: New Delhi collaborates with multiple powers, including the US, Russia, Japan, and even Iran or Australia, depending on the issue. For example, despite US objections, India went ahead and bought the Russian S-400 missile defense system – and the Biden administration waived sanctions on India to allow it. This illustrates India’s independence in decision-making.
Some concrete stats and facts underline these trends:
- Arms imports: India was the world’s 2nd largest arms importer in 2020–24. Russia accounted for 36% of those imports, although India is now “shifting … towards Western suppliers – most notably France, Israel and the US”.
- Oil and energy: After the Ukraine war, India became a top buyer of discounted Russian oil. China also buys Russian oil, but Trump’s tariffs singled out India instead.
- Diplomacy: India and Russia meet regularly; they are co-founders of BRICS and have a history of cooperation. By contrast, New Delhi is unsure how long US support will last if policies swing again.
These points help explain the user’s observation that India-Russia relations are strengthening “day by day.” While US-India relations face short-term ups and downs, India and Russia remain close “special and privileged strategic partners,” as Modi and Putin have called their relationship. Indeed, India and Russia have agreements in defense, energy, and space, and their leaders continue to meet despite global tensions. In contrast, some Indian analysts note that the USA – by its unpredictable behavior – has sometimes seemed less like a reliable friend and more like a challenging counterparty.
Table: Bilateral Trade (FY2024-25)
| Partner | India’s Total Trade Volume | Notable Observations |
|---|---|---|
| United States | $132.2 billion (exports + imports) | India enjoys a trade surplus (~$40.8B) with the US in FY25. The US is India’s largest trading partner. |
| Russia | $65.7 billion | Trade mainly in energy (oil) and defense. Much smaller volume than with the US. |
FAQ
- Why have US India relations become unpredictable?
Under President Trump, U.S. foreign policy has been marked by big, sudden moves (like sudden tariffs or sanctions) that catch allies by surprise. When these decisions – for example, slapping 50% tariffs on Indian products – target a close partner, they are seen as unpredictable and erode trust. Observers say “the only constant is volatility” in the partnership these days, making India cautious. - How have Trump’s policies affected the US India partnership?
Policies like steep tariffs on Indian goods and attempts to press India on buying Russian oil have strained ties. Analysts warn that actions like these “threaten the long-term foundation” of cooperation. Many Indians felt blindsided and accuse the U.S. of double standards. At the same time, Trump’s outreach to Pakistan upset India. Overall, the partnership saw a rare downturn, testing relations built over 30 years. - Why is India strengthening ties with Russia?
India’s relationship with Russia goes back to the Cold War. Russia has been India’s main arms supplier and ally. Even today, Russia backs India diplomatically (for example, supporting India’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat) and supplies oil and weapons. Because of current frictions with the US, India is emphasizing the steady Russia link – buying discounted oil, signing defense pacts (like the S-400 air defense system), and conducting joint military exercises. This provides India with insurance in an uncertain world. - Can the US and India rebuild trust?
Many analysts believe the ties can recover, but it will take effort. The long-term strategic interests (countering China, fighting terrorism, and economic partnership) still align. Both governments talk about the need to patch up. For example, US officials have signaled willingness to negotiate trade and move forward on a defense framework with India. However, rebuilding trust requires consistent policies. If tariffs are rolled back and Washington reaffirms commitment to India, the thaw can happen. The 2025 India-US meetings and negotiations for a new defense framework suggest both sides are aware the partnership remains vital. - What does “multi-alignment” mean for India?
Rather than choosing just one superpower, India prefers to keep friendly ties with many countries. This means engaging with the US on technology and security, with Russia on defense equipment and energy, with Japan on maritime security, and even with European and Middle Eastern nations on global issues. As an analyst put it, India’s multi-alignment “clashes with” the Trump administration’s more transactional approach. India believes this flexibility is key to safeguarding its interests when major powers make unpredictable moves.
Conclusion
The US India relation stands at a crossroads. On one side are deep historical and strategic bonds – shared democratic values, booming trade, and joint security exercises. On the other side are recent shocks: sudden tariffs, diplomatic missteps, and worries about commitment under an unpredictable US administration. As a result, India is leaning on its long-standing alliance with Russia for stability (hudson.orgtribuneindia.com). In short, Americans and Indians remain allies on many fronts, but trust has been tested. Moving forward, the two nations will need clear communication and mutual respect to rebuild that trust.
What do you think? Can the US and India smooth out these wrinkles in their relationship, or will India’s diversifying alliances make it difficult for the partnership to fully recover? Share your thoughts below!
